It’s not a secret that America is losing interest in award shows. In 2000, 46.3 million viewers tuned in to the Academy Awards; last year, it was down to 15.4 million.1 As much as it seems like the Academy is mortified by public fiascos (read: the La La Land (2016) incorrectly being announced as Best Picture ‘DilEmma’, or the recent real-life reenactment of Everybody Hates Chris), they paradoxically and clandestinely rely on these scandals to keep audiences interested. And for many in Hollywood, the ceremony still represents the highest honor in showbiz, and the chance to be heralded by their peers is worth dirtying hands and emptying wallets.
Negative campaigns aren’t as popular as they were pre-Y2K, but PR schemes and off-the-books lobbying for films and studios are still omnipresent. Just this year, the Best Actress nomination of Andrea Riseborough garnered gossip after it was revealed that a veritable junta of A-Listers pushed for her, hosting special screenings and mobilizing public opinion like they were Woodrow Wilson gearing up for World War I. Publicists practice flashcards with weaponizable statistics: Steven Spielberg is overdue for Best Picture, Nelson Mandela hadn’t even been elected yet the last time he won! China still didn’t have internet! Strategists with claws out are even brazen enough to tell the New York Times that the cast of Everything Everywhere All at Once visiting the site of the Monterey Park shooting was opportunistic: “Do they not know the shooter is Asian? It’s not a racially motivated crime.” Yeah… the Oscars can be pretty ugly.
I do, however, still have opinions on this weekend’s proceedings. Will something unhinged and meme-worthy steal the spotlight and make headlines? More likely than not. Will an announcer make a slap joke? I’m already rolling my (googly) eyes. And the most basic question of all… who’s going to win? I’ll start with the technical categories.
I have no major objections to these choices—you’ve got to throw a couple bones. The next few categories get slightly more contentious.
Best International Feature
Shaun’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Shaun’s Vote: EO
It’s true, I like big donkeys… and I cannot lie? I enjoyed All Quiet as much as the next guy who read the book in 11th grade, and it is very deserving of the Best Cinematography title. It is a stunning depiction of war that is somehow irreverently anti-war, wielding an intrepid directorial gaze. It might be the flashiest and easiest to understand of the nominated international works, but it simply isn’t the best—EO is a bold, original, masterpiece that is perhaps just too slow and weird for the average American viewer.
Best Supporting Actor
Shaun’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
What else is there to say about Ke Huy Quan’s meteoric comeback? Short Round has had a great year, sweeping pretty much every major award he’s eligible for. His victories are most touching because they’re what we all yearn for deep down: evidence that it’s never too late to return to what you love. Ke Huy Quan waited patiently behind the camera for decades, and now he doesn’t need a Dr. Jones to stand next to in his big screen revival. His performance is multi-faceted, nuanced, and powerful (in two languages and multiple universes). The easiest prediction of the night for me is that Everybody Loves Waymond.
Best Supporting Actress
Shaun’s Prediction: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Shaun’s Vote: Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Angela Bassett acted like her life depended on it, and she’s nabbed the first ever acting nomination for a Marvel flick. Does she deserve an Academy Award? Yes, and I’ll be delighted if she wins. That notwithstanding, Stephanie Hsu delivers a transformational experience that is unprecedented in modern cinema, especially for an actress of her age. If you haven’t seen her viral audition tape, I implore you to add it to the queue. Stephanie’s role in Everything Everywhere All at Once was complex, with an expanded presence over Ramonda’s Black Panther reign. This category is certainly one of the closest races (let’s not forget Jamie Lee), so even though Stephanie Hsu might be an underdog this time, I’m sure we’ll see her on the podium soon.
Best Actor
Shaun’s Prediction: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Lots of discourse about this award… I can’t say it better than SNL. Austin Butler’s Elvis was convincing for the Megaplex, but lacked the lasciviousness and nonchalance of the King himself. And for god’s sake, please stop doing the voice. You’re from Anaheim, Austin. California.
Best Actress
Shaun’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Shaun’s Vote: A Tie, between Michelle Yeoh & Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
The Oscars have had six ties in their history, what’s one more? In the modern era, it’s admittedly far more statistically improbable now that there are 9,500+ voting Academy members, but it’s still a nice thought. Both women deliver world-class portrayals, with demanding physical and emotional ranges, and multilingual scripts. Critics tend to favor TÁR, but Michelle is overdue for accolades after decades of cinematic achievements. I’ll also point out that Michelle Williams’s nomination above Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler is… baffling.
Best Picture
Shaun’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
We’ve recently seen a renaissance of Blockbusters in Best Picture nominations. This year is notably the first ever with two sequels on the dais, alongside a few other audience favorites like Elvis and The Fabelmans. This category in particular is also, admittedly, more slanted towards the cultural zeitgeist than to pure quality (i.e. popularity is factored in), and it’s also the only category voted on by all Academy members. That being said, my endorsement is easy.
Why am I not rooting for more crowd-pleasing films like Top Gun? Well, in the words of my arch-frenemy…
“There’s already an award for movies that sell a lot of tickets. It’s called money.”
-Richard Brody
I draw a distinction between movies that are fun to watch and movies that are art. Some films can be both, some can be neither, some can be bland art, and others can be mindless fun. I prefer movies that have it all (fun and meaning), and Everything Everywhere All at Once manages to have everything, well… all at once. Does the Academy ever get it wrong? Oh, absolutely—last year we saw a few decisions that would’ve been more at home at the Acadummy awards. I just hope we all remember that none of this really matters, and it’s certainly nothing worth trading slaps about.
The 95th Academy Awards will be aired on ABC at 8:00pm ET on Sunday, March 12th, 2023.